Breaking Down the Bracket: Will Tide Make NCAA Tourney?

Alabama Looks to Go Dancin' for 6th Straight Year

Selecting the 65 teams that make the NCAA Tournament is a job that most would not like to have. Every year there are certain "bubble" teams that do not get into the tournament and the NCAA Selection Committee gets blasted by Dick Vitale, Jay Bilas, and all the rest of the College Hoops talking heads about who got hosed this year. We thought we would take a deeper look at this year's projections to see if Alabama might be one of those teams.

Alabama is currently 19-8 overall and 6-6 in the SEC. It is ranked #25 in one poll and unranked in the other. More important than rankings,however, is a team's Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), which has been used by the NCAA since 1981 to supplement the selection of at-large teams and the seeding of all teams for the NCAA basketball tournament. A RPI rating is made up of 3 factors. Div. I winning percentage (FI, 25%), schedule strength (FII, 50%); and opponent's schedule strength (FIII, 25%). Different weights are given to the location of the game for both the winner and loser of the game.

Alabama currently has a RPI rating in the low to mid 20's, which should be good enough to get them and at large bid, so the question again is...Will Alabama make the tournament? If Alabama wins the SEC Tournament in the a couple weeks then yes, they will receive the automatic bid into the tournament and this is a moot point. If they do not, that is where things get interesting. If the season ended today I would say they are in, but I am only a punk graduate student who is looking for a job in Nasvhille, TN (If your hiring please call me). Speaking of Nashville, Vanderbilt's win over Florida this past Saturday locked up a spot for them. The SEC is looking to get anywhere from 5-8 teams in the tournament, with Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee looking good at the moment. Ole Miss and Arkansas need to finish strong to get a bid. Let's not take my word for it however and look at what the "experts" are saying.

CBS.sportsline.com Gary Parrish believes Alabama is in with a 10 seed and has them playing National Player of the Year candidate Kevin Durant and the 7th seeded Texas Longhorns. While Durant is great, I think the Tide can win that game and it would set up a probable second round matchup with 2 seed Washington St. in his bracket. Click this to see his bracket.

ESPN.com's Bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, thinks a little higher of the Tide and has them as a 9 seed playing 8 seed Creighton in the first round. A win in that game would have Alabama playing 1 seed Wisconsin in the second round,if the Badgers can get by their 16th seeded opponent. Click this to see his bracket.

Foxsports.com's Michael Lazerus does not think as highly of Alabama and does not have them in his latest projection that was published three days ago. With Alabama's win over Kentucky on Saturday, who has a great RPI, the Tide got the "big win" it needed to impress the selection committee. Not counting that game, Lazerus does not have us in his latest bracket, which you can see here.

That is three experts with three different opinions. If Alabama wins at Tennessee on Wednesday it would do wonders for their chances. It would give them a quality win over a team with a high RPI, on the road, and set up Alabama to be either first or second in the SEC West, which would give them a first round bye in the SEC Tournament. After Tennessee, Alabama has Ole Miss and Auburn at home (both should be wins) and travels to Mississippi State to finish the regular season (could go either way). While Alabama's chances of making the Tournament look a lot better with the win over UK, they can not afford to stumble in these last two weeks if they want to go dancing.